Estimating worldwide Brown Marmorated Stink Bug risk of establishment

The primary objective of the project was to develop a pragmatic, reproducible and transparent model for estimating risk in countries that are currently not reporting the presence of BMSB.

Brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is a highly polyphagous plant pest, that poses a substantial threat to horticulture worldwide (CABI 2019). Australia and New Zealand are currently free of BMSB, despite large regions in both countries being deemed climatically suitable (Zhu et al. 2012; Fraser et al. 2017; Kriticos et al. 2017). However, maintaining this pest-free status is becoming increasing difficult as Australians import larger quantities of potentially contaminated goods from an expanding list of countries, ultimately increasing the risk exposed to Australia’s horticultural industry.

Interception data coupled with expert opinion indicate that for both Australia and New Zealand the number of BMSB arrivals and the likelihood of establishment will be greatest when the pest overwinters in the Norther Hemisphere. Australia and New Zealand have both attempted to minimise their exposure to BMSB introductions by imposing additional phytosanitary trade restrictions over the Northern Hemisphere overwintering months for countries with known established populations (DAWR 2017; Ormsby 2018).  However, the effectiveness of these additional phytosanitary requirements at reducing Australian and New Zealand exposure to BMSB arrival and establishment will ultimately depend on how accurately risk countries are identified.

A major difficulty in identifying risk countries is that the effort in monitoring and reporting BMSB is not equal among countries.

The primary objective of this project is to develop a pragmatic, reproducible and transparent model for estimating risk in countries that are currently not reporting the presence of BMSB.