Emerging risk of Xylella fastidiosa in Europe under global change
This article, published in Biological Invasions, examines how global change may reshape the invasion dynamics of X. fastidiosa across Europe. Drawing on evidence from national surveys, epidemiological models, and evolutionary studies, the authors develop a mechanistic framework linking introduction pressure through trade, the expansion and connectivity of invasion hotspots, strain coexistence, and the role of natural ecosystems as pathogen reservoirs and dispersal corridors. They argue that climate change may increase the likelihood that broader regions exceed the critical thermal thresholds required for sustained transmission following introduction. At the same time, repeated introductions of the bacterium and long-term persistence in heterogeneous landscapes may foster the accumulation of genetic diversity and increase evolutionary risk. Finally, they discuss implications for disease management, emphasizing the need to integrate biosecurity, surveillance, and control strategies with the ecological and evolutionary processes shaping invasion under ongoing global change.
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